Bill Obermeier
Head of Strategic Marketing
Telstra

1. When will we have sufficiently ubiquitous broadband to enable widespread use of three-dimensional full-immersion highly-realistic virtual worlds, of which Second Life is now a forerunner?

Who is "we"?  If it is the U.S. I would think within 3 to 5 years.

2. When will (biological) humans be unable to tell whether they are interacting with another biological human or with a virtual (software-generated) "person" in such virtual worlds?

I hope we never lose touch with reality. When we can't tell the difference between virtual life and real life, we're all in trouble.

3. When will the majority of the world's people have access to wireless broadband?

Someone once said predicting things is really hard, especially if they're in the future.  I'll leave this one to others who have better insight into global environments.

4. What will the social, economic, and political impact be of very inexpensive ubiquitous worldwide access to wireless broadband?

Socially it will mean people can stay connected to each other, to their homes, to their businesses, to their virtual world, and all aspects of their real world, regardless of where they are.  That means unsurpassed mobility.  It will take the Southwest Airlines slogan to the next dimension -- "You are now free to move about the world."

Economically it will drive new levels of productivity and reduced costs, while also furthering global expansion for businesses.  Workers can work remotely, call centers can be virtual, businesses can thrive with little infrastructure -- the whole business paradigm changes. 

User-generated content will expand and virtual communities will become more common, enabling the sharing of information, data, and entertainment in real time.  New borderless communities of interest will create interesting policital dynamics in the world.  If we were lucky, it would create greater tolerance of diversity through more available access to "the rest of the world."

5. When will the display technology of choice be the writing of images directly to the retina from head mounted devices (built into prescription glasses)?

When our educational system enables people to think in a way that enables coherent writing.

1. When will we have sufficiently ubiquitous broadband to enable widespread use of three-dimensional full-immersion highly-realistic virtual worlds, of which Second Life is now a forerunner?

That broadband already exists today… in Japan. Japanese consumers enjoy the fastest and most reliable broadband speeds with higher speeds promised in the next five years. Leaders in technology such as Australia and the United States need to take a lesson from their Japanese counterparts and look to find ways to meet this competitive threat.

2. When will (biological) humans be unable to tell whether they are interacting with another biological human or with a virtual (software-generated) "person" in such virtual worlds?

With 100% accuracy – probably never – gut instinct is a human function that can never be replicated in a digital world.

3. When will the majority of the world's people have access to wireless broadband?

To answer this question we need to look at where the majority of the world lies – for example, China and India. Both these countries are experiencing unprecedented growth in wireless services.

4. What will the social, economic, and political impact be of very inexpensive ubiquitous worldwide access to wireless broadband?

Social: Who isn't waiting for the 3G iPhone?

Economic: real time financial tools will become better, cheaper and easier to use, leading to an increase in global trade and finance. Commerce will be more portable and micropayments will become a major part of our financial toolbox.

Political: Citizens will be better informed, and informed faster than ever before. Broadband means video and the moving image has already proven itself to be a major part of world events for the past 70 years.

5. When will the display technology of choice be the writing of images directly to the retina from head mounted devices (built into prescription glasses)?

Not for a very long time…. maybe.

1. When will we have sufficiently ubiquitous broadband to enable widespread use of three-dimensional full-immersion highly-realistic virtual worlds, of which Second Life is now a forerunner? 

Next year is the year of ubiquitous mobile broadband...and it always will be.

2. When will (biological) humans be unable to tell whether they are interacting with another biological human or with a virtual (software-generated) "person" in such virtual worlds?

Today.  Most of the hot young girls you are texting with in online chat rooms are really middle-aged men.  So what is the difference between conversing with a fake real person or a fake fake person?  Companies like Conversagent are the forerunners in this space, providing IM bots that are good enough currently to fool most 7-year-olds.

3. When will the majority of the world's people have access to wireless broadband?   

The day after the majority of the world's people have access to safe drinking water.  This is a question of priorities.  The developed world, one could argue, already offers mobile broadband to the majority of its citizens.  Some countries are approaching 100% mobile penetration and are projected to exceed it.  The notion that "broadband" is going to change the game in the near term is a broad assumption.  So far, 3G has disappointed because the most impressive innovation the wireless industry could come up with was mobile TV.  Big deal.  What will they do with 4G or 10G, whatever that means?  Will any citizen of a poorer nation feel they have missed something because they were not able to purchase virtual real estate from their mobile broadband device?  I doubt it.

4. What will the social, economic, and political impact be of very inexpensive ubiquitous worldwide access to wireless broadband?   

It will facilitate peer-based communication, which will increase freedom of expression, which will enable people to self-organize around ideas, which will threaten governments, which will lead to massive censorship, which will hinder freedom of expression, which will pave the way for a new communication medium that routes around what will then be the old one.

5. When will the display technology of choice be the writing of images directly to the retina from head mounted devices (built into prescription glasses)?   

This will happen a year before the data transmission technology of choice is via a wireless broadband chip attached directly to the cerebral cortex and a decade before all physical mobility is eschewed in favor of total virtualization of the human experience so we never have to leave our stasis chambers.

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