The Global Macro Investing & Geopolitical Risk conference in New York concluded on October 20th 2010 after three days of engaging discussion with some of the most influential thought-leaders in macro-economic analysis, alternative investment and leading policy think tanks.
While the first two days were devoted to the key fiscal, monetary, policy and economic issues affecting global markets, the final day's "Investor Summit," offered insight into macro investing from a practitioner's point of view.
The event boasted a lineup of esteemed academics, economists and money managers including Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff, Former FED Governor Randall Kroszner and Fortress Investment Group President Michael Novogratz, to name a few. The overarching themes that were discussed were:
panelists expressed cautious optimism towards the US economic outlook as they felt that despite continued risks, there has nevertheless been a modest recovery. Such optimism stems from the fact that the basic engine for economic growth is not broken as labor productivity remains strong and the personal savings rate is now close to 6%—much higher than the pre-recession level... <Read more
FED policy and action
Emerging markets vs. developed markets
Risk management in macro investing
There was full consensus that Chairman Bernanke's recent speech points to further QE on November 3, but it is the magnitude of the treasury buybacks that remains in question and will ultimately dictate the US inflation, employment and GDP growth. According to former FED Governor Kroszner, the FED has been forced to accommodate the heightened demand for liquidity in the market...<Read more
Despite the consensus on QE2, there were still many who feared that the US economy is headed towards deflation. Specifically, they pointed to the significant drop in bank credit and the depressed level of consumer credit as reasons for future price declines...<Read more
With many at the conference feeling that the Obama administration has fallen short in bolstering the US economy, there was much discussion surrounding the magnitude of the GOP gains that could be expected on November 2...<Read more
As debt woes continue to mount in Europe and as social backlash against austerity measures persists, the consensus of the conference was that the Eurozone is set to experience slower 2H 2010 growth which is likely to also continue through 2011...<Read more
On the topic of China and its currency appreciation, despite the recent surprise interest rate hike, most attendees felt that any currency movement would be gradual. Politically, the fact that 2012 will see a new set of leaders come to the forefront makes it difficult for any major changes to take place between now and then...<Read more
The most recent economic recession has brought about much debate around the strength of developed economies versus emerging markets. Some money managers at the conference were quick to point out that the emerging markets have been one of the best asset classes since the early 1990s...<Read more
The final day of the conference saw a series of panels where macro investors debated the merits and risks associated with different investment styles...<Read more
While the Global Macro Investing & Geopolitical Risk was sweeping in the topics that were covered, it also offered a very timely, in-depth and thoughtful analysis of the plethora of issues and forces that are currently affecting the global macroeconomic landscape and investment decision-making environment.
Event summary by IIR and Track.com